Pakistan: Indus Basin and Water
Issues
Zaigham
Habib |
The
Indus basin hosts the
biggest contagious irrigation
network of the world
(WAPDA 91). The basin
provides key water and
land resources of the
country (Table 1) and
has a level of maturity
in the exploitation
of these resources for
agriculture with the
help of an impressive
river water conveyance
and distribution network.
Table 2 shows heterogeneous
natural and climatic
conditions and variable
development characteristics
of water use systems
in the huge basin. The
Indus Basin is a rich
case to evaluate and
understand the requirements
of improved water management
to address the challenges
of increasing economic
and livelihood pressures
and sustainability threats.
This analysis is based
on a research study
of the Indus Basin carried
out from 1998 to 2003
(by the author). The
objectives and characteristics
of the designed systems
have a determining influence
on their functioning
and performance. But
there is an evolutionary
process shaped by the
responsiveness of different
components within the
boundaries determined
by the potential and
constraints of the systems.
The evolved existing
behaviour of the physical
as well as management
systems is a key to
the future options and
actions, defined and
selected by the management
approach. This article
is organised in three
sections describing
briefly natural setting
and planned character
of the agriculture in
the basin, actual behaviour
of the irrigated agriculture
and some of the future
management options.
| Table
1: Land and Water
Resources |
| Pakistan
2000 |
Indus Basin Average |
| Total
Area |
79.6
mha |
River
Inflow |
184
bcm; range 135bcm
to 230 bcm |
| Population |
141
million |
Eastern
Inflows after 1978
declining |
2
to 20 bcm; Average
8 bcm |
| Irrigated
Land |
18
million ha |
Rainfall
|
Range
23 to 140 bcm, Average
= 70bcm |
| Crop
land |
23
million ha |
Diversions
after 1978 |
103
to 137 bcm; Average
132 bcm |
| Share
of Agriculture in
GDP |
26% |
Groundwater
after 1996 |
65
bcm |
| Agriculture
Labor Force |
40%
- 45% |
Outflow
1978 - 2000 |
90
bcm to 1.3 bcm;
Average = 44 bcm |
| Food
grains production |
22
mtons |
|
|
| Table
2: Some natural
and developed heterogeneities
|
| Topography |
Catchment
-- km to delta |
| Rainfall
in the Basin |
6
zones; 600mm to
50 mm |
| Temperature |
5
zones; max 22c to
53c, min 16c to
22c |
| Salinity |
Mha fully non-saline
saline irrigation
area |
| Groundwater |
|
| Reference
Evapotranspiration |
Summer
900 mm to 1400mm,
winter 300 mm to
800 mm |
 |
Major
Drivers of Agriculture
The food and livelihood
security, agriculture
revenue and political
control have been three
driving elements behind
the agriculture development
in the Indus Basin for
centuries. A variety
of heterogeneous setups
existed in the basin
having different combination
of these drivers. The
agro-climatic and soil
conditions provided
varied natural agriculture
potential while the
socio-communal structure
shaped different ownership,
control and management
relationships. Over
a long historical period,
Indian subcontinent
had hundreds of states,
tribes, kinship groups
and small hamlets involved
in agriculture and livestock
near the supportive
reaches of rivers, rain-fed
areas, monsoon supported
forests and grazing
fields. These agriculture
settings have survived
despite strong central
governments in India
(Hugh 1928). The modern
irrigation that started
developing in the 18th
Century has a continuity
of the basic concepts,
some new techniques,
but variable priorities.
The
water management and
irrigated agriculture
existed in the Indus
basin for centuries.
The urban infrastructure
of the Harappan period
(2500 BC) had water
supply and sanitation
facilities, the irrigated
wheat and rice were
grown. These systems
were planned and operated
by some state machinery.
The Greek Ambassador
Magasthene to the court
of Emperor Chandar Gupta
describes (330 BC) the
control of irrigation
facilities developed
by the state (Michel
1967): 'he [a state
official] measures land
irrigated and water
which is shifted into
branches through a sluice'.
He writes further about
'wealthy Indian farmers,
who grow two crops a
year. There grows throughout
India much millet, which
is kept well watered
by a large number of
streams. Almost all
plains of the country
have moisture drawn
from rivers or rain'.
The
revenue from agriculture
in terms of crops and
livestock, and the export
of raw and refined agri-products
can be traced back to
2000 years back in the
Indus Basin. There is
mention of rules to
obtain water and pay
a price for irrigation.
The Land of the Five
Rivers (Hugh 1928) quotes
Arthashastra (a religious
book dating from the
Ram Chander's period
700 BC) from the Ancient
Law by Maine H.S (1901),
'who irrigates by the
manual labour pay 1/5th
of the produce, for
carrying water on shoulders
1/4th and by water lifts
1/3rd of the produce.
The ‘superintendent’
of agriculture will
grow ‘wet’
summer and winter crops
depending upon the availability
of water'. Abu Yasuf,
the Qazi-ul-Qazat (Chief
Justice) of Baghdad
in the 8th century wrote
a long history from
Adam to his period (Moreland
1929). He mentioned
the revenue rates in
India as 2/5th and 3/10th
in case of stream and
Persian wheel irrigating
wheat or barley, 1/3rd
for gardens and dates,
1/4th for summer produce
in areas under Muslim
control.
With
the development of state
and administrative machinery,
need to enhance the
revenue and political
control increased. In
the 13th century, Feroz
Tughlak built four canals,
providing water to selected
areas and introduced
'water benefit tax'
called Haq-e-Sharb (meaning
right to water). The
Mughal King Akbar established
a strong administration
in India and supported
local states to develop
their water resources.
His son, Emperor Jahangir
(1605-1627) built the
first perennial canal,
Huslie, from the Ravi
River near Lahore for
the royal gardens. Another
110 km long canal 'Huslie'
was built by Emperor
Shah Jahan (1628 1658)
for the Shalimar Gardens
in Lahore. Both canals
continued to exist and
were improved by the
Sikhs and British (Buckley
1905). ‘The assessment
statements were prepared
twice yearly for every
villagea large army
of clerks of the newly
created Land Record
Department was housed
in a large record room
at Fatehpur Sikri (Akbar's
capital)’. He
improved the land record
system introduced by
the Muslim ruler Tughliq
200 years ago. Two persons
in a village were appointed
to record the agri-land
and assess the revenue,
these ‘Qanoongo
& Patwari still
exists’ (Moreland
1929). The land was
granted to individuals
with titles indicating
the measures of land
(Jahangir's Durbar consists
of Punj (5) and Dus
(10) Hazarvi or thousands
of acres). The tax rate
during Akbar's period
was 1/8th to 1/3rd with
no tax on new cultivation
for the first five years
(Moreland and Ali 1918,
Habib 1962). The Sikh
Government in Punjab
introduced an agriculture
controlled by state
administration and wealthy
investors. They snatched
land from the middlemen
and title-holders of
the Mughal period and
distributed it to small
cultivators without
an ownership right.
The agriculture revenue
increased, and higher
taxes were imposed on
big owners, 2/5th to
1/3rd of the crop (Moreland
1929).
The
trade of agriculture
and food product with
other Asian and European
countries established
the trade routes used
by different invaders
later on. 'The trade
of spices, blue (colour)
ivory, refined animal
butter, silk, leather,
handicrafts and precious
metals to west Asia
and Central Europe from
the land and sea routes
(Karachi) in 5th to
7th Century would have
been an attraction to
the warriors of these
less fertile areas'
(Extracts from District
and State Gazetteers
-- reprinted 1977).
The export of rice,
cotton, silk, spices,
organic and animal butter
is mentioned in Ian-e-Akbri.
The climate of the Indus
basin needs canals irrigation.
Buckley (1905): 'The
chief inundation canals
of India are found in
the basin of the Indus
and its five tributaries…
Some of the inundation
canals of Punjab lie
in the high reaches
of Sutlej and Jhelum
but the majority of
them on the areas bordering
on the confluence of
the rivers. The district
of Multan, laying between
Sutlej and Chenab, where
rain hardly ever falls,
is rendered beautifully
fertile due to a series
of inundation canals
constructed by Mughal
Emperor Aurangzeb (1680-90).
In the Derajat on the
right bank of the Indus,
above Mithankot, there
is a group of twelve
canals. And Muzzafargahr,
a corresponding group
irrigates a tract of
some 12 miles wide.
The Upper Sutlej canals
are in the central portion
of the Doab lying between
Ravi and Sutlej. Here
the face of the country
is covered with the
farmer life and prosperity.
More than fifty inundation
canals existed in the
lower Indus region in
the mid-eighteenth century
(Nazir Ahmed, Habib.Z
2004 ).
The
British Period
Under the British Raj,
a central authority
was able to impose an
administrative hierarchy
over the whole territory
for the first time in
history. British realised
the potential of agriculture
to be a focal point
for the rural country
and economy. For the
development during this
period, the central
investment and better
technical solutions
are much acknowledged
factors, while political,
administrative and economic
interests are reported
by the few: Theoborn
(1905), Hughe (1928),
Douie's Settlement Manuals
(1899) & Gilmartin
(1994).
The
revenue was the key
consideration when British
administration started
managing the agriculture
sector. About 1/6th
of the total revenue
of Punjab was from the
agriculture: 'Taxation
was then levied almost
entirely on the rural
population. Practically
the whole Punjab revenue,
from largest head-land
revenue-to the smallest-stamps
comes from the producing
masses while commercial
classes escaped from
taxation entirely' Hugh
(1928). The first paragraph
of Douie's Settlement
Manual (1899) gives
the basic principle
of the land policy,
'the state has always
claimed a share of the
produce of the land
from the person in whom
it recognised a permanent
right to occupy and
till it or arrange for
its tillage.' He also
referred to an earlier
law, the first clause
of Regulation XXXI (1903):
'By the ancient law
of the country the ruling
power is entitled to
a certain proportion
of the annual produce
of every beigha' (Douie
1899). Animal husbandry
was a big industry,
the Nomad tribes perceived
rights to the forest
and grazing fields without
any title of ownership
and they were rarely
disturbed. Paying a
regular tax on these
grazing lands was even
more difficult. So,
it took time to implement
a grazing tax per animal,
of 0.1 Rs per goat to
1.5 Rs per camel or
a buffalo. ( reprinted
Gazetteer Mazafargarh).
'A god they apparently
had. His name was political
economy' (Thorburn 1904).
The
first set of land ownership
and revenue assessment
laws was enacted around
1873. The process of
'irrigation colonisation'
changed the structure
of society in many areas,
bringing scattered kinship
groups and tribals under
the influence of 'village
colonies' having an
administrative link
with the British Government
through the village
gentry, lamberdar1 and
patwari (revenue clerk).
In this regard, the
discussion on the establishment
of Chenab colony is
reflective in this regard.
In 1891, the Revenue
Secretary of the Punjab
Government wrote to
the center (District
and State Gazetteers
1904): 'It seemed essential
to preserve the tradition
of Punjab as a country
of peasants' farmers.
No other general frame
of society is at present
either possible or desirable
in the Province….
As already remarked,
capitalist farming in
general is not a system
suitable to Punjab.
But a moderate infusion
of the capitalist element
is not out of advantages.
It supplies natural
leaders for the new
society; it gives opportunity
to Government to reward
its well deserving servants,
and to encourage the
more enterprising of
the Provincial gentry;
it attracts strong men
who are able to command
the services of considerable
bodies of tenants; it
furnishes a basis from
which agricultural improvements
may be hereafter extended,
and, lastly, it enables
Government to obtain
a better price than
might be otherwise possible
for the ownership as
distinct from the user
of its land.' In 1892,
allotment of land in
Chenab colony was split
as 40,000 acres to capitalists,
60,000 to yeoman (serviceman)
and 27,000 to peasants.
Technical
Character of Irrigation
The development of big
river like alluvial
canals, river structures
to feed their head-works
and a branched distribution
system of each main
canal feeding thousands
of tertiary canals was
the start of new era
in the history of irrigation.
In the Basin, first
50 years was the period
of experimentation with
the control structure
of weir and design parameters
of the 'regime alluvial
canals'. A history of
empirical relations
exists for these developments
based on the field experiments.
For each new system,
design parameters of
the best performing
canals were used as
a reference. The later
period was more focused
on the design and alignment
of self-regulatory tertiary
structures to deliver
'equitable share' of
water allocated to the
command area of each
watercourse. Many outlets
structures have been
designed and used in
the basin to deliver
'close to the authorised
discharge' under the
expected flow variability.
The key principle for
the fair distribution
in the upstream control
non-regulated systems
is to maintain the water
level at the 'design
target level' or proportionate
to it. Hence, physical
maintenance, operations
of the main canal structures
and regulatory procedures
to ensure water levels
became major responsibility
of the organisation
responsible for the
canal water management.
However, very little
scientific contribution
made in water and crop
sciences during development
phase of big irrigation
schemes in the subcontinent
could be quite puzzling
for a reviewer of history.
Another dimension of
empirical context was
the selection of cropping
patterns and water requirements
for the design of secondary
and tertiary systems.
Agriculture was the
main reference to calculate
expected water requirements
and cropping intensities.
The systems developed
in the beginning and
sweet water areas had
low water allowance,
while contribution from
the groundwater and
rainfall was considered
close to the prevailing
irrigation. The river
water available at a
node and downstream
commitment were the
main constraints. Indus
river had flows reduced
to thirty per cent in
winter, reducing the
water levels as well
in the river system.
This shortage was addressed
by making a fraction
of the command area
non-perennial (no water
supply in winter) but
with higher Kharif (summer)
allocation. When the
command area of a secondary
canal was divided into
perennial and non-perennial,
the annual allocation
was kept in the same
range, providing double
supplies to non-perennial
in Kharif. No single
formula was used for
the perennial and non-perennial
demarcation. The earlier
canals were mostly perennial
with a small percentage
of non-perennial supplies
to the rice growing
areas having good rainfall
(Jehlum, Chenab and
Bari Doab canals). The
rice and cotton dominant
areas were mostly non-perennial
with saline areas provided
with perennial supplies.
The canals developed
at the later stage,
some of them replacing
flood irrigation through
inundation canals, were
made non-perennial because
the perennial flows
were already utilised.
These areas were provided
with very high water
allowance at the pattern
of flood irrigation.
The water allowance
of the canals generally
increased with time
as the development proceeded
to the more arid area.
An important influencing
factor was capacity
of the canals and the
size of command areas
to be benefited. During
the British period allocation
remained less than 3.5
cusecs for the perennial
and less than 7 for
non-perennial systems
(even the arid areas
like Sukkur barrage
had 3 cubic feet/1000
acres).
The
regional interest to
get maximum supplies
had greater influence
in the areas owned by
independent states and
the lower Indus. The
exceptionally high allocations
to the Guddu and Kotri
barrage systems (started
operating in 1956 and
1962 with 9 to 17 cusecs
per 1000 acres) are
due to high aridity,
saline groundwater,
rice irrigation and
availability of river
flows for summer only.
The design discharge
is not used in most
of the high allocation
canals. Different estimates
of the crop water requirements
and seepage losses are
given by different project
studies (LIP 1965, WISP
1978). The river diversions
include water supplied
to lakes, local structures
for the drinking water
and infrastructure like
railways. For the water
sharing negotiation,
main canals have been
getting out of debate
after 1991, as WAA fixes
provincial water share
with the statement:
'the provinces will
be responsible for the
internal distribution'.
The distribution at
the main canal level
is highly inequitable
(Kijne 1994, Habib,
Kuper 1998), this inequality
is accepted by WAA by
making 1978-82 actual
supplies a reference.
No forum is officially
available to check or
rectify water distribution
at the main canal level.
The
Administrative Model
The basic character
of administrative and
institutional setup
adopted at the design
stage has sustained
till today and closely
influenced the way changes
are addressed in irrigation
and water management.
Some important factors
behind this robustness
are briefly discussed:
Central
planning:
The development and
allocation of river
water resources was
planned at the central
government level in
India. The provinces
and independent states
were asked to submit
the proposals, which
were finalised by the
special commissions
formed by the central
government.
Minimum
management input:
The irrigation systems
were planned and designed
to have minimum managerial
input. The regulatory
structures were kept
minimum on the primary
and secondary network.
All tertiary head-works
were self-regulatory
and farmers were responsible
for the maintenance
of watercourses. The
department was made
responsible to monitor
some of the responses
of irrigation like drainage
as a separate activity.
Given the size of irrigation
infrastructure, heterogeneity
of the seasonal water
rights, operation and
maintenance (O &
M) was defined with
clear and authoritative
rules and roles (Manual
of Irrigation Practices
1873).
Public works Operations:
The provincial public
works departments were
responsible for the
operation and maintenance
of the systems like
other public utilities,
roads, railway, etc.
Originally the 'irrigation
wing' of the public
works and later-on independent
Provincial Irrigation
Department was not concerned
with overall water management
or other uses of water.
Committed
performance targets:
In setting the targets,
irrigation delivery
can be considered like
a service oriented public
utility. However, nature
of the utility was such
that targets could only
partially be achieved
and it was very difficult
for the user to evaluate
this service. It is
the responsibility of
the department (service
provider) to monitor
and evaluate its own
functioning. The users
can claim a remedy in
case of production failure.
The empirical evidence,
simplicity and administrative
control were three characteristics
of the water resources
management in the Basin.
The 'new irrigated agriculture
setup' had few inherited
dichotomies (Michel
1967, Gilmartin 1994).
The development objectives
of the British Indian
Government during the
earlier and the later
periods changed, which
resulted into a big
difference in water
allowance, land tenure
and ownership. Famine
control and rural settlement2
were the main objectives
during the first phase
of the development of
the North Indian irrigation
schemes (Jurriens and
Mollinga 1996), while
the colonial government's
investment in the second
phase was more focused
on revenue generation
through the sale of
crown wasteland and
the encouragement of
cash crops. The conflict
between the engineering
need to implement an
'appropriate technology'
and the administrative
interest of the colonial
government to develop
and facilitate a rural
'loyal elite' could
not be resolved by the
straightforward irrigation
laws enforced by the
Canal and Drainage Act
of 1873. The hydraulic
efficiency of water
supply and the economic
efficiency of water
utilisation did not
always match (Michel
1967, Lieftinck 1968).
From
Run of the River to
a Regulated Basin
The Indus Waters Treaty
between India and Pakistan
in 1960, and the construction
of two big reservoirs
(Mangla 1967, Tarbela
1978) enhanced the inter-connectivity
and inter-river water
transfer potential to
a very high level. It
is unique that the major
sub-basins of three
big rivers having about
6 million hectare irrigated
land had to rely on
water transferred from
other rivers. The net
increase in diversions
is about 60 per cent
after 1960 ( bcm to
bcm - Habib 2004) .
The Indus network is
the same today as it
was in1978. All main
canal headworks are
linked through rivers
and link canals, reservoirs
supporting whole system
other than the 1st barrage
of the Chenab river.
Sharing the reservoir
is a fully regulated
system for release of
water. Even to feed
all canals with fair
share from the direct
river flows, each structure
on the main network
would need to be operated.
This is a basic change
in the designed run
of the river supply
based water delivery
network.
Water
Allocation and Division
Principles
With the design of large-scale
canal systems, the surface
water availability changed
from an 'access control'
to an 'authorised allocation'.
The concepts of 'riparian
water rights' and 'prior
water use rights' facilitated
the access of 'old users'
to a limited level,
but became obsolete
when all ‘divertible
water’ got engaged
with the 'authorised
allocation'. With the
extension of irrigation,
the probability of having
lower than the allocated
water during low supply
period of early and
late Kharif (summer)
increased. This shortage
was distributed among
the canals through operational
priorities, which increasingly
becomes tougher and
an issue of disagreement
among the provinces.
All water allocation
committees between 1937
and 1982 (Andersons,
Sindh-Punjab draft,
Haleem commission, etc.)
had to address the priority-issue,
but none of the draft
agreement were fully
accepted by the provincial
irrigation departments.
The
flexibility provided
by the reservoirs relaxed
the priorities and decreased
the shortage of the
authorised allocation,
and put a new challenge
to share the stored
water. The highest demand
on this water was during
the high stress period.
This affected the doctrines
of 'equitable distribution'
and 'perennial and non-perennial'
division. More water
could be supplied in
Rabi (winter) than officially
allocated. An operational
technique was to distribute
this water through the
scheduling of available
excess or shortage.
By virtue of the regulation
process, scheduling
has to be responsive
to the water demand
of different canal commands
during the period of
interest. Eventually,
the non-perennial canals
started getting water
in Rabi (winter) without
any command areas allocation
or the distribution
formula, regulated through
the 'historical diversions'.
The differences on the
interpretation of WAA
(1991) started surfacing
as early as 1994 and
continue till today.
WAA weaknesses are as
follows:
- Conceptually,
WAA allocations
are neither based
on the design philosophy
nor any new criterion.
The provincial seasonal
and annual allocations
are neither equal
nor proportional
to the design allocations.
The winter provincial
share of water depends
upon the actual
diversions of 1978-82,
which already had
the impact of peak
storage potential
of both reservoirs.
However, there was
no change in the
authorised seasonal
discharge of the
main canals.
- The
WAA accepts that
the management of
surface water needs
a more 'real time'
distribution targets
than the design
discharge. And the
originally planned
systems can be intervened
by replacing two
seasonal target
values for the year
with 10-daily targets.
But, adopts the
schedule recommended
to share the access
or shortage of discharge,
by modifying it
and making actual
supplies of 1978-82
a permanent reference.
It changed the character
of the regulatory
water scheduling
from a dynamic to
a static reference.
- The
developed portion
of river flows is
divided for the
existing irrigation
uses with a small
increase, 'other
uses will be managed
within this allocation
(WAA)'. The division
of river water was
made equivalent
to the irrigation
canal diversions.
Punjab was already
using all of the
allocated water
in irrigation in
1991. Hence, to
satisfy other/new
water uses, Punjab
could exploit the
groundwater, develop
flood share or shift
water from irrigation/old
uses. About 70 per
cent potential of
groundwater was
already utilised
in 1991, which is
quickly depleting
now.
Continuous
provincial disagreement
inside and outside
IRSA and high level
administrative interference
(at the ministers
and even president's
level) in water stress
situations indicate
the insufficiency
of the management
arrangements. The
reservoir operations
are influenced by
crop demand periods,
especially for cotton
and wheat. It is very
hard to save water
for the end of the
year shortage while
accepting an existing
shortage. The influence
of this shortage can
be seen from the exceptionally
low water levels in
Tarbela during June,
July and August 2004.
Agriculture
in the Basin3
A common measure of
agriculture performance
in the basin is given
by the increase in
cropping intensities,
which are doubled
from the planned level
in the sweet zone
(NWFP & Punjab)
but, remains at the
design level in the
saline and waterlogged
zones. The gap is
wider at the main
canal command level,
60% to 260% of the
design (Habib 2004).
The minimum cropping
intensities are not
in the canal commands
having a water shortage,
but having water and
soil salinity and
socio-economic factors
(Strosser 1997). However,
in the basin context,
agriculture performance
in terms of extension
is much better than
the planning and forecast
by Water and Power
Development Authority
(WAPDA) consultant
in 1967 and 1978.
The first study forecast
23 million hectare
(ha) (mh) cropped
area after utilising
full water potential
with canal diversions
of billion cubic metres
or bcm (million acre
feet or maf). This
is the potential already
achieved with about
5 million ha (sailaba
and barani) cropped
area outside the canal
commands and 130 bcm
average direct diversions.
This 5 mh is not fully
un-irrigated as the
shallow wells are
used wherever possible.
The seasonal cropping
intensities show that
the agriculture is
essentially perennial
in the basin. The
major cash crops (cotton,
sugarcane) are grown
in summer¸ while
the food grains and
fodder covers higher
areas in winter. Hence,
the Rabi irrigation
is very important
for the food security.
With ha size 80 per
cent farms are strongly
at the subsistence
level, practicing
livelihood oriented
agriculture. But,
some of the comparative
concepts must change,
like protective versus
productive and livelihood
versus market oriented
agriculture, as the
markets and prices
have influence on
the farming decision
of the small farms.
The
use of groundwater
The heavy use of groundwater
is the main factor
in achieving current
agriculture potential.
It supplements canal
supplies and has become
the only source of
Rabi irrigation in
some non-perennial
canal command areas
(Tahir & Habib
2000). More importantly,
the groundwater has
provided major security
against uncertain
canal supplies during
critical crop growth
periods. The wells
are used in the Sailaba
(land along the rivers)
and Barani (rain fed)
areas. To have a secure
access to groundwater,
each farmer wants
to have his own tube-well
and the number is
reached to half a
million. The real
issue concerning groundwater
is the sustainability
of groundwater aquifer,
so that its supply
and uses could be
maintained. Otherwise,
the areas relying
on groundwater, especially
the small farmers
using low capacity
wells, can face a
real disaster. Tushar
Shah (2000) mapped
'four stages in the
rise and decline of
groundwater socio-economic
systems: the Indian
experience'. Where
due to over-draught,
socio-economic quality
of life starts declining
at the 3rd stage and
reached to the initial
level (no groundwater)
at the 4th stage,
he called it ‘bubble
burst’. It can
be inferre |