|
Punjab-Punjab
Cooperation
Tridivesh
Singh Maini
|
This
paper aims at analysing
the efforts made
towards regional
integration in South
Asia and possible
recommendations
for the future.
It explains why
neo-classical approaches
of economic integration
may not work in
South Asia. Apart
from questioning
traditional approaches
to economic integration,
it also provides
examples from the
Indian and Pakistani
province of Punjab,
to show that traditional
approaches to integration
(neo-classical models)
may need to give
way to unconventional
approaches (functional
models) which have
been successful
in certain African
countries.
The
basic thrust of
the paper is on:
-
Following
the development
and project
based approaches
of cooperation
(which have
been used successfully
in parts of
Africa) and
which are being
followed to
some degree
by Indian and
Pakistani Punjabs1.
-
Laying emphasis
on all five
tracks of diplomacy:
-
Track
One: Official
government-to-government
diplomatic interaction;
-
Track
Two: Unofficial,
non-governmental,
analytical,
policy-oriented,
problem-solving
efforts by skilled,
educated, experienced
and informed
private citizens
interacting
with other private
citizens;
-
Track
Three: Businessman-to-businessman,
private sector,
free-enterprise,
multinational
corporation
interactions;
-
Track
Four: Citizen-to-citizen
exchange programs
of all kinds,
such as scientific,
cultural, academic,
educational,
student, film,
music, art,
sports, and
youth exchanges,
-
Track
Five: Media-to-media
based efforts
designed to
expose and educate
large segments
of the population
to the philosophy,
ideas, culture
and needs of
the other national,
society, or
ethnic group
with whom they
are in conflict2.
The
SAARC summit in
Islamabad (January,
2004) proved to
be quite unusual.
The political establishments
of India and Pakistan,
which have been
at loggerheads over
the Kashmir issue
since independence,
actually signed
a declaration by
the name of South
Asian Free Trade
Agreement (SAFTA)
which laid down
in detail the path
towards economic
integration. Apart
from this, some
individuals, including
the Prime Minister
of India, also talked
about the possibility
of a single South
Asian currency3.
SAFTA was signed
on January 2004
at the SAARC summit
in Islamabad. The
first stage of economic
integration thus
began -- SAFTA represents
a movement away
from the mere tinkering
with tariffs under
SAPTA, to eliminating
barriers to free
trade in the region.
The earlier commodity-by-commodity
negotiations under
SAPTA proved to
be highly tedious
and time-consuming,
and had not made
much of an impact
on the intra-regional
trade transactions
still languishing
below five per cent
of the global trade
of the member-states.
The twenty five-article
SAFTA replaced the
earlier SAPTA4.
A
key feature of
SAFTA's Trade
Liberalization
Program (TLP)
is tariff reductions
by the non-LDCs
- primarily India
and Pakistan -
down to 20 per
cent. This step
is to be taken
in by January
1, 2006. If the
actual tariff
rates on that
date are already
below 20 per cent,
they will undertake
an annual reduction
on a Margin of
Preference basis
of 10 per cent
on actual tariff
rates for each
of the two years.
The subsequent
tariff reduction
by the non-LDCs
from 20 per cent
or below, to 0-5
per cent will
be done within
the next five
years, starting
January 1, 2008.
Sri Lanka will
reduce the second
tariffs within
six years5. Tariff
reductions by
the LDCs from
their existing
rates will be
reduced to 30
per cent within
two years. If
the actual tariffs
are below 30 per
cent, there will
be an annual reduction
of 5 per cent
on actual tariff
rates for each
of the two years6.
If SAFTA is implemented
successfully,
it could result
in the following
positive outcomes
for South Asia:
-
Intra-SAARC
trade currently
is a tiny 3.6
per cent of
the region's
total trade.
Its members
could push it
to 25 per cent,
which though
still small
compared to
other regional
groupings, like
OPEC, NAFTA
and EU at nearly
50 per cent,
it would be
a major improvement.
-
Trade
between SAARC's
Big Two, India
and Pakistan,
through official
channels, is
US$ 250 million
a year. But,
the overall
trade via third
countries like
Singapore and
Dubai is estimated
at US$ 1.5 billion
a year. It shows
the potential
for SAFTA to
become a regional
economic player
of standing7.
Pursuing
a Different Approach
While
traditional models
of economic integration
have their advantages,
they may not necessarily
work for South Asia.
It may be more useful
to think of minimalist
models of regional
cooperation and
track two exchanges
between India and
Pakistan. What emerges
is that so far the
two countries are
on the right track
and the region of
Punjab has taken
the lead on both
sides. While initially
a start was made
by non-track one
exchanges, now both
Indian and Pakistani
Punjabs are talking
of potential trade
and joint research
projects in the
sphere of agriculture.
This section will
now question traditional
approaches to economic
integration and
suggest feasible
alternatives, it
will also examine
the role of the
two Punjabs in the
Indo-Pak peace process8.
One of the main
reasons for South
Asia and other
developing regions
not having developed
any economic integration
until now is that
no feasible/applicable
model of economic
integration has
been thought of
for South Asia.
Most South Asian
intellectuals
think in terms
of the neo-classical
model of the European
Union which is
stage based, however
they do not realise
that the Developing
World (especially
South Asian) economies
are very different
from First World
Economies and
neo-classical
models of economic
integration do
not apply to these
countries.
Neo-Classical
model of economic
integration
The
main proponents
of the Neo-Classical
model of economic
integration were
Balassa , Viner,
Tinbergen, Krugman9
and they believed
in:
-
Stage
wise economic
integration
-
Special
emphasis on
trade creation
and diversion
-
These
models are applicable
to countries
where:
-
Countries
wanting to trade
with each other
specialise in
the production
of different
types of goods.
-
There
are well developed
means of communication
and transportation
between these
countries.
The
neo-classical model
of economic integration
has been suggested
for developing regions
too, but no consideration
has been given to
the lacunae of this
model in the context
of developing regions
especially with
regard to the problem
of production of
similar goods. The
region's biggest
players compete
to export textiles,
garments, and agricultural
commodities like
tea, coffee and
sugar). On the contrary,
in the European
Union and other
economic blocs,
countries specialise
in the production
of different types
of goods. This problem
results in the non-applicability
of the theory of
comparative advantage.
The theory of comparative
advantage mainly
propagated by Samuelson
and Hecksher Ohlin10,
believes that trade
between countries
is always helpful
as countries can
then produce what
they are best at.
As a result of
the above mentioned
constraints, it
is not possible
to begin by conventional
means of economic
integration and
it would be useful
to start with
limited cooperation
in two stages
(which will be
discussed in more
detail in the
approaches section).
The African model
of integration
consists of the
following stages
and could work
for South Asia
(Indian and Pakistani
Punjab, have been
following the
first stage and
the results seem
to be positive
so far).
Functional
integration
This
model was initially
propagated by
Mittrany11 who
felt that
One
major lacuna in
his assumption was
that he assumed
the separation of
politics from economics,
which is certainly
not true for developing
regions. Later proponents
of this school of
thought: Haas, Ravenhill
and Oden12, suggested
a more realistic
version of functional
integration where
a slow and cautious
beginning (focusing
on project based
cooperation in areas
like infrastructure)
is made to economic
integration.
The
functionalists'
main assumptions
are:
-
International
Cooperation
should be initiated
in technical
or core areas.
-
Once
success has
been achieved
in these areas
it will lead
to a spill-over
in other areas.
-
The
integration
process in functional
areas will lead
to political
spill-over (Oden
1993).
-
This
sort of approach
is acceptable
to all as it
does not surrender
the sovereignty
of any country
and at least
lays some foundation
for economic
integration
apart from giving
countries a
chance to know
each other better
and familiarise
themselves with
differences
and similarities.
It has been
followed by
the South African
Development
Community (SADC)
bloc.
It
must be noted that
the model is recommended
as a mere beginning
and can only lay
the platform for
single currency
and trade and is
no substitute for
conventional models
of economic integration.
Cooperation
Between the Two
Punjabs
The
Punjab, called Pentapotamia
by the Greeks, derives
its name from two
Persian words, panj
(five), and aab
(water, having reference
to the five rivers
which confer on
the country). Punjab
is a region that
encompasses Northern
India and Eastern
Pakistan. Punjab
is bounded on the
north by the vast
Himalayan ranges,
which divide it
from China, Tibet
and Kashmir; on
the east by the
river Yamuna, the
North-Western Provinces
and the Chinese
Empire; on the south
by Sind, the river
Sutlej, which separates
it from Bhawalpur,
and Rajputana; and
on the west by the
Sulaiman range,
which divides it
from Baluchistan,
and Afghanistan,
which joins the
Khyber13.
To acquaint individuals
not familiar with
the geographical
location of the
two Punjabs, below
is a map of the
Punjab region in
India and Pakistan.
One of Pakistan's
biggest cities,
Lahore, is in the
Punjab region. On
the Indian side,
Amritsar, the holiest
city of the Sikhs,
is in the Punjab
region, very close
to the Pakistani
border.
 |
On
an emotional plain,
there are strong
cultural commonalities
between the two
Punjabs, which include
amongst other things
a common language
-- Punjabi, and
similar eating habits.
In addition to this,
Punjabis on both
sides feel as if
the partition of
1947 was more like
a partition of Punjab,
not a partition
of India. Present
day inhabitants
of Pakistani Punjab,
migrated from what
is now Indian Punjab
and vice-versa14.
The two Punjabs
(regions which exist
in both India and
Pakistan- East Punjab
being part of the
former and West
Punjab part of the
latter) have often
tried to go against
the tide of hatred
which has dominated
Indo-Pak relations.
Indian and Pakistani
Punjab have begun
cooperation in a
similar way to that
recommended by the
functional model:
The West Punjab
leadership has given
in to a demand from
Indian Punjab to
facilitate better
links between Amritsar
(Indian Punjab,
which is not only
a holy city of the
Sikhs, but also
an important economic
focal point in the
future, for the
whole of South Asia)
and Nankana Sahib
(in West Punjab).
Nankana, where Guru
Nanak Dev ji (Guru
Nanak Dev, was the
founder of Sikhism
and ji is a form
of respect in the
Punjabi language)
was born, is the
holiest of shrines
for the Sikh Community;
however, it has
remained inaccessible
to Indians for all
these decades. On
his recent Lahore
visit, Captain Amarinder
Singh (Chief Minister
of Indian Punjab)
along with Chaudhry
Pervaiz Elahi (Chief
Minister of Pakistani
Punjab) laid the
foundation stone
for a new road to
Nankana Sahib. The
first lot of 10
buses carrying Sikh
devotees from Amritsar
to the historic
town is likely to
begin on April 13th
which happens to
be the one of the
most important Sikh
holiday's known
as Baisakhi15. In
fact, if a few more
roads are to come
up like the one
between Amritsar
and Nankana Sahib,
South Asian regional
cooperation may
move even faster
than anticipated,
without SAFTA coming
into force one of
it's important provisions
(Article 1 k) which
aims at development
of communication
systems and transport
infrastructure is
already in force16.
The road will not
only make it easier
for pilgrims from
India, but could
also emerge as an
important trade
route for the future.
A major problem
for the South Asian
region is that the
infrastructure and
transportation facilities
are not sufficient
to carry out trade.
With just one land
crossing point at
present between
India and Pakistan,
it is extremely
ambitious to plan
for free trade between
the two countries17.
Apart from its other
advantages, the
road between Amritsar
and Nankana Sahib
has pushed other
states in India,
to examine the feasibility
and viability of
improving connectivity
with neighboring
countries in South
Asia. This point
was brought out
very well in an
article on Indo-Pak
relations18.
'In
Assam, there is
mounting pressure
from regional leaders
of all political
hues to open up
the old Stilwell
Road that links
India and China
through upper Myanmar.
The chief minister
of Sikkim Pawan
Chamling wants a
bus service between
Gangtok and Lhasa.
In Jammu and Kashmir,
the people of Ladakh
want to know why
the border with
China cannot be
opened up to facilitate
tourism into western
Tibet? If a bus
can run between
Srinagar and Muzafarrabad,
and between Amritsar
and Lahore, why
not one between
Ladakh and Mount
Kailash? Kolkata
and the two Bengals
will gain immeasurably
from the revival
of transit trade
between India and
China across the
many passes in the
Eastern Himalayas.
Why can't Chittagong
in Bangladesh regain
its status as the
main seaport for
North East India?'
Amongst
other important
measures, the Government
of Pakistan is considering
allowing non-resident
Indian Sikhs to
construct their
houses at Nankana
Sahib. Chaudhary
Pervaiz Elahi, Chief
Minister, West Punjab,
and top bureaucrats
of Pakistan have
agreed to explore
the possibilities
of establishing
a big colony of
NRI Sikhs. At present,
there is no provision
for allowing any
Indian or NRI Sikhs
to build their houses
in Pakistan19. If
this move goes ahead,
it will be a good
opportunity for
both sides (India
and Pakistan) to
know each others'
economic needs better.
On
its part the East
Punjab (Indian Punjab)
side has also been
quite positive about
increasing cooperation
with Pakistani Punjab.
In December 2004,
the first Punjab
games (where athletes
and sportsmen from
both the Punjabs
participated) were
held at Patiala
(Indian, Punjab).
While these games
were going on Captain
Amarinder Singh,
Chief Minister of
Indian Punjab was
quick to take advantage
of the bonhomie
and took a crucial
step, in converting
track two exchanges
into a useful economic
process. At a press
conference he was
quick to ask some
visiting Pakistani
businessmen 'Why
are you buying wheat
from Russia? We
have huge reserves
and can supply it
immediately,' 'If
the Berlin Wall
could be demolished,
what stops us from
breaking barriers20,'.
Markfed (Marketing
Cooperative of Indian,
Punjab) is awaiting
clearance from the
external affairs
ministry to supply
2 million tonnes
of wheat to flour
mills in Pakistan
through the Wagah
border21.
One of the significant
moves which is an
indicator of increasing
closeness between
the two Punjabs
is the Indian Punjab's
State Mandi (Marketing)
Board proposal of
linking the fruit
and vegetable markets
of Ludhiana (Indian,
Punjab) and Lahore
(Pakistani, Punjab)
by giving them the
nomenclature of
sister market committees.
Stating this, after
returning from a
visit to Pakistan,
Mandi Board chairman
Sant Ram Singla
said a proposal
to this effect had
been moved by the
Pakistan Agricultural
Department authorities.
He said the Mandi
Board would put
forward a case for
closer cooperation
between the market
committees of both
Punjabs. Mr Singla
said the Mandi Board
would also exchange
expertise on grading
and packing of fruits
and vegetables with
its counterpart,
besides extending
cooperation towards
creating a cold
chain to ensure
effective transportation
of goods. The Mandi
Board chairman said
the Pakistan Punjab
Government was in
the process of setting
up an agricultural
marketing board
on the Punjab pattern22.
This move would
give both Indian
Punjab and Pakistani
Punjab, the opportunity
to modernise their
marketing systems
by learning new
facets of agricultural
marketing from each
other.
In many ways, the
two Punjabs are
moving in a similar
direction as the
South African Development
Community (SADC)
model where the
initial focus was
on project development,
(with significant
emphasis on cooperation
in the areas of
transport and communications).
Later SADC expanded
to other areas like
food security, energy
and industry and
trade23. It must
be said, though,
to the credit of
the Punjabs, that
they are giving
serious thought
to trade in the
very initial stages
of cooperation24.
The next stage of
integration which
South Asia needs
to think of is development
integration. It
talks about broader
cooperation in political
spheres and also
lays emphasis on
equitable distribution
of economic gains.
Development
Integration
The
main proponent of
the Development
model is Hans Blomqvist25.
This approach basically
emphasises cooperation
in policy formation,
building common
economic institutions
and taking care
of the interests
of smaller countries.
It begins by dealing
with the basic infrastructural
and institutional
problems in countries
and if implemented
in a sensible way
provides the chance
to grassroot actors
to play an important
role as in certain
SADC countries.
Some of its key
assumptions are:
-
A
conscious emphasis
on cooperation
and interdependence
amongst member
states.
-
Political
cooperation
is considered
imperative for
implementation.
-
It
believes in
equitable distribution
of the benefits
produced by
regional cooperation.
At the lowest
level this is
done by compensatory
measures. At
a higher level
it is resolved
by corrective
measures such
as planned regional
industrial development
that favours
less developed
members and
funds or regional
development
banks that give
priority to
LDC loans26.
This
model could be a
good second stage
in the case of South
Asian regional integration,
where political
cooperation would
help in a large
degree to do away
with the mutual
hatred and suspicion
of the past. Following
such a model will
also keep smaller
countries interested
in economic integration,
as there interests
will not be ignored
or brushed aside.
Conclusion
The conclusion
is divided into
two sections, economic
and political. Apart
from giving examples
of how economic
cooperation in South
Asia could be beneficial
to the whole region,
political implications
of increasing South
Asian cooperation
in general and that
of the Punjabs in
particular is also
given.
Economic
The signing of the
SAFTA agreement
augurs well for
South Asian integration.
However, it remains
to be seen whether
stipulations in
SAFTA can be implemented
within the next
year. Track two
exchanges between
India and Pakistan
must carry on and
move purposefully
towards fulfilling
clearly defined
economic objectives.
If they can, then
basic problems of
economic unemployment,
can be tackled.
According to an
estimate, liberalised
India-Pakistan trade
in the agro-sector
itself, would generate
around 2.7 lakh
(hundred thousand)
jobs in India and
1.7 lakh (hundred
thousand) jobs in
Pakistan. The food
and agri-business
industry has a significant
impact on the regional
economy. This industry
has one of the highest
economic multiplier
effects among the
various industries,
even ahead of the
telecom or power
sector. Another
area where Indo-Pak
cooperation would
be beneficial is
production of basmati
rice.
India
and Pakistan merely
hour and a half
distant apart, could
leverage areas of
mutual strengths
to be world leaders
in Rice Exports.
Pakistan India direct
trade could be beneficial
in terms of freight
component which
is merely 5%, in
comparison to 15-20%
if traded through
a third country.
India & Pakistan,
in general and the
region of Punjab,
in particular is
strategically located
and has ideal climatic
conditions best
suited for the desired
quality of Basmati
Rice. Together,
the two countries
could cater world
demand of Basmati
Rice globally.27.
It will be important
for South Asian
countries to realise
that a different
approach to economic
integration may
be needed from that
of the European
Union's model. Unlike
Europe, most South
Asian countries
specialise in similar
types of goods (which
means, that the
theory of comparative
advantage may not
be applicable) apart
from this there
is no homogeneity
of political institutions
and connectivity
between different
nations. Perhaps
a gradualist and
minimalist beginning
to economic integration
in the form of a
project-based and
development-based
integration would
be most appropriate
and practical allowing
for test case corrections
on a more manageable
scale.
- Developing
World intellectuals
should try to
cooperate and
build networks
amongst themselves.
South Asian intellectuals
should study African
models of integration
in more depth
and try to see
how they may fit
in the South Asian
context.
Political
-
The
increasing interaction
between the
two Punjabs
and ultimately
other regions
in South Asia
could be the
prelude to 'a
closer understanding
and interaction
of cultures'
and be a reminder
that the 'clash
of civilizations'
theory is a
highly exaggerated
one. To some
degree, this
also raises
a question as
to what is more
powerful 'civilisations'
as described
by Samuel Huntington
or 'cultures'.
-
The
example of the
two Punjabs
shows that it
is time to think
beyond thinking
in terms of
nation-states;
while this in
no way implies
political/geographic
transformations,
it certainly
does call for
a transformation
in mindsets
and more imaginative
thinking on
the parts of
governments
in South Asia.
-
Track Two diplomatic
efforts should
not be thought
of as a substitute
for Track One
efforts, but
rather as an
indispensable
preparation
for and adjunct
to them. Ideally,
Track Two diplomatic
efforts should
pave the way
for Track One
negotiations
and agreements
by encouraging
Track One official
diplomats to
recognise and
utilise crucial
information
and insights
obtained by
Track Two citizen
diplomats.
-
Economics,
by itself, will
not help in
removing the
mistrust and
suspicion of
the past. It
has been rightly
suggested that:
A
psychological strategy
should try and tackle
the psyche of the
people of the region.
It should evolve
naturally through
sustained economic,
cultural, academic,
social interaction.
|