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South Asian Security Dilemmas
 

South Asia, a most unpredictable nuclear flash point in the world, is beset with numerous and conflicting security challenges resulting in intractable, and also quite discernible, dilemmas not only at the interstate and intrastate levels, but also between human security and military security. The ongoing conflicts often spill over ethnically and geographically contiguous, mostly porous, frontiers bringing states into conflict, fuelling ethnic and communal divides and kicking an arms race, on the one hand, and bringing greater misery to the people who have been the worst sufferer in conflict situations, on the other.

There are two principal dilemmas, besides others, that confront South Asian countries: One, the dilemma of military security and human security: If the countries of South Asia concentrate excessively on military security, as they do in most countries and need not to, they without making military security 'impregnable' undermine human security in both relative and absolute terms in all its facets. And if they try to 'strike a balance' between the two, which still remains biased against human security, they miss their inflated military objectives while keeping the human security at an abysmally low level. The dilemma of maintaining higher expenditure on military security at the cost of human security continues to exacerbate since a flawed doctrine of nuclear deterrence and the arms race in the subcontinent, nuclear and missile race in particular, are escalatory in nature. Given so close a contiguous region, the de facto and unsafe nuclear regimes in the subcontinent, leave no time to preempt even an accidental nuclear exchange or a false alarm.

Greater emphasis on military security has resulted in an increase of 44 per cent in military expenditure in South Asia, which is relatively the highest in the world and is equal only to North Africa. It rose from US$12 billion in 1993 to US$ 17.3 billion in 2002. As a consequence, and besides other reasons, human security continues to be undermined since 42 per cent or 488 million people out of a population of 1.4 billion live on less than a dollar a day, making South Asia home to nearly half of the world's poor. India, ranked eleventh among the big spenders on defence, followed by Russia, increased its defence expenditure from US$ 8051 million in 1990 to US$ 12882 million in 2003. Pakistan's defence spending rose from US$ 2636 million in 1990 to US$ 3176 million in 2003, despite a worse period of fiscal crisis and sanctions.

As compared to their excessively wasteful and increasing military spending, the people suffer in innumerable ways as depicted by one of the lowest levels of human development indices, lagging behind even Sub-Saharan Africa on certain crucial human indicators. In India, 34.7 per cent of the population lives below US$1 a day, share of poorest 20 per cent in national income/consumption stands at 8.1 per cent, 47 per cent children are underweight for their age - one per cent less than Afghanistan, number of under-nourished people declined by just one per cent from 25 per cent in 1990/92 to 24 per cent in 1998/2000, youth illiteracy rate persisted at 26.7 per cent, till 1992, etc. On the other hand, in Pakistan, the people living below poverty-line increased from 18 per cent in 1987 to 37 per cent today, 38 per cent children are underweight for their age, under-nourished population decreased from 25 per cent in 1990/92 to 19 per cent in 1998/2000 and youth illiteracy still stands at 38.4 per cent.

The other crucial security dilemma is the over-lapping of intrastate conflict with interstate conflict, or vice a versa. When a nation-state acts against its dispossessed and oppressed ethnic or/and religious minority, with ethno-lingual-religious affinities across the frontiers, it comes into conflict with the other nation-state, turning an intrastate conflict, at the same time, into an interstate conflict. And if it doesn't act against its ethno-lingual minority or a community of people, seeking separation or a right to interact or merge with its counter-part divided by a border or seek a sanctuary across an international frontier, it allows the other nation-state to benefit from such a restraint or provoke an interstate conflict.

The Tamils' struggle against the Sinahla-Buddhist dominated-state of Sri Lanka and latter's military response against them incite sentiments among the Tamils of India, Tamil Nadu state in particular, and brings Colombo under New Delhi's pressure to not to concede independence to the secessionists or how not to make an adjustment. The dangerous spillover of this intrastate conflict could be gauged from deployment of the Indian troops in Sri Lanka at one point of time and assassination of former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi at the hands of a Tamil suicide-bomber. Similarly, various nationalist insurgencies in India's north-eastern states have dragged Bhutan, Bangladesh and Burma into the intrastate conflicts of India. The case of Bhutanese refugees, an intra-state issue, has resulted in souring of relations between Nepal and Bhutan. Demographic explosion, especially economic migration and water and resource distribution, is also causing interstate and intrastate conflicts.

The spillover of an intrastate conflict between the two wings of Pakistan - East and West Pakistan - in 1970-71, led to a war between India and Pakistan, resulting in the dismemberment of the country and allowing the people of East Bengal to exercise their right to self-determination, despite having acceded to Pakistan in 1947. The dispute over Jammu and Kashmir, arbitrarily divided between India and Pakistan, has kept the relationship between the two neighbours a hostage to the conflict, resulting in two full scale wars and one local military duel between the two countries. The interstate and intrastate conflicts also provide room for foreign intervention and weaker parties try to seek alignment with outside powers to counter-balance the stronger adversary.

If viewed from the peoples' viewpoint, and in the collective interest of the South Asian region, these security challenges can be met collectively and conflicts can be resolved to the mutual benefit of the parties involved while saving people from greater misery and dislocation. As we witness a wave of reconciliation across South Asian region, the efforts should be doubled to solve all disputes peacefully and through composite, sustainable and result-oriented negotiations. The time has come that member countries of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) not only build a solid foundation for economic and cultural cooperation by agreeing to South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and moving towards a South Asian Union, besides developing a mechanism to resolve disputes peacefully and evolving a South Asian collective security system, instead of allowing the domination of one country over the other.

Produced By: Free Media Foundation For South Asian Free Media Association