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The
strong economic growth experienced in 2003 continued in
the first quarter of the year (January- March, 2004),
with the main impetus emanating from the tourism
sector. The review quarter, coinciding with the peak season
of the tourism industry, experienced significant improvements
in the tourism sector and other tourism related key sectors
of the economy. Major indicators of the tourism sector
such as tourist arrivals and tourist bednights depicted
substantial growth rates both on quarterly as well as
on annual terms. The developments in the fisheries sector
showed a good increase in the levels of fish landings
during the review quarter compared to the first quarter
of 2003, but a decline compared to the last quarter of
2003. As regards the export activities of the sector,
a marked increase in earnings as well as in volume of
fish exports were registered during the review quarter.
Although compared to the first quarter of 2003, volume
of fish exports were somewhat lower. Both the distribution
and construction sector activities expanded during the
review quarter on the strength of tourism sector performance.
The domestic price developments, as indicated by the inflation
rate (measured by a 12 month moving average of Consumer
Price Index, CPI), continued to be negative. However,
a simple year-to-year change in CPI showed a positive
rate at the end of the review quarter indicating the prices
have risen compared to the same period of last year. On
the fiscal side, the Government's budgetary position continued
to remain in surplus during the review quarter. However,
the surplus was smaller compared to both the previous
as well as the corresponding quarter of
2003, largely reflecting the decline in domestic revenue
during the review quarter. With the positive budgetary
outturn in the past quarters as well in the review quarter,
net claims on government by the banking system continued
to decline in the review quarter as well. As a result,
the growth in domestic credit during the review quarter
was on account of the strong growth in credit to the private
sector. This increase in domestic credit coupled with
the continuous improvement in net foreign assets, total
liquidity in the banking system expanded significantly
during the review quarter.
As regards the developments in the external sector, the
merchandise trade account continues to be in deficit.
However, the deficit during the review quarter was smaller
compared to the previous quarter and was attributable
to a decline in imports, as well as a substantial improvement
in exports during the review quarter. Compared to the
first quarter of 2003 the defecit widened significantly
in the review quarter.
| Key
Economic Indicators, 2001 - March 2004 |
| |
2003 |
| Gross
Domestic Product |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
QTR1 |
QTR2 |
GDP
(1995 constant prices) Rf mn. 1/
% change in GDP |
-
- |
-
- |
-
- |
-
- |
-
- |
| Consumer
Price Index |
| %
change in CPI |
-0.6 |
-1.9 |
-2.8 |
-2.8 |
-2.9 |
| Tourism |
Tourist
arrivals
Bed night capacity ('000)
Capacity utilization (%) |
54,503
529
90.4 |
56,706
478
95.5 |
56,441
529
87.3 |
167,650
1,536
91.1 |
157,709
1,526
83.6 |
| Fish
Production |
Landings('000
MTs) 2/
Total fish exports ('000 MTs) 3/
Total fish exports (US$ mn.) 3/ |
11.2
11.9
10.5 |
12.5
3.9
3.7 |
12.1
7.5
6.5 |
35.8
23.2
20.7 |
44.7
15.2
18.0 |
| Money
and Banking (Rf mn) |
Net
foreign assets
Domestic credit
Total liquidity
Change in net claims on Government |
1,793.3
3,390.2
4,052.6
-47.7 |
1,851.6
3,456.7
4,117.0
42.5 |
2,043.5
3,308.4
4,229.2
-162.2 |
2,043.5
3,308.4
4,229.2
-167.4 |
2,613.4
3,246.6
4,543.7
16.8 |
| Balance
of Payments (US$ mn) 4/ |
Exports
(f.o.b) 5/
Imports (f.o.b)
Trade balance
Current account balance
Non-monetary capital (net)
Overall balance |
18.2
-31.8
-13.6
-
-
10.2 |
10.9
25.9
15.0
-
-
4.6 |
15.6
-34.2
-18.7
-
-
15.0
|
44.6
-91.9
-47.3
-
-
29.7 |
39.4
-122.7
-83.2
-
-
27.1 |
Gross
International Reserves (US$ mn) 6/
External Reserves in Months of Imports (cif) |
139.6
4.2 |
141.3
4.2 |
146.8
4.3 |
146.8
4.3 |
161.0
4.1 |
| Exchange
Rate |
Rufiyaa
/ US$ (Period average mid rate)
Rufiyaa / US$ (End of period mid rate) |
12.8000
12.8000 |
12.8000
12.8000 |
12.8000
12.8000 |
12.8000
12.8000 |
12.8000
12.8000 |
| Continue.. |
| |
2004 |
| Gross
Domestic Product |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
QTR1 |
GDP
(1995 constant prices) Rf mn. 1/
% change in GDP |
-
- |
-
- |
-
- |
-
- |
| Consumer
Price Index |
| %
change in CPI |
-2.2 |
-1.3 |
-0.8 |
-0.8 |
| Tourism |
Tourist
arrivals
Bed night capacity ('000)
Capacity utilization (%) |
61,861
519
100.5 |
59,692
490
100.8 |
63,855
524
97.9 |
185,408
1,533
99.7 |
| Fish
Production |
Landings('000
MTs) 2/
Total fish exports ('000 MTs) 3/
Total fish exports (US$ mn.) 3/ |
112.2
11.4
9.3 |
12.2
3.4
4.5 |
14.3
7.9
8.6 |
38.7
22.6
22.4 |
| Money
and Banking (Rf mn) |
Net
foreign assets
Domestic credit
Total liquidity
Change in net claims on Government |
2,677.7
3,353.1
4,782.8
-54.2 |
2,970.7
3,355.6
4,874.1
35.8 |
3,086.6
3,473.9
5,020.3
-8.6 |
3,086.6
3,473.9
5,020.3
-27.0 |
| Balance
of Payments (US$ mn) 4/ |
Exports
(f.o.b) 5/
Imports (f.o.b)
Trade balance
Current account balance
Non-monetary capital (net)
Overall balance |
16.9
-41.6
-24.6
-
-
5.0 |
13.0
-33.0
-20.1
-
-
22.9 |
17.7
-43.4
-25.7
-
-
9.1
|
47.6
-118.0
-70.4
-
-
37.0 |
Gross
International Reserves (US$ mn) 6/
External Reserves in Months of Imports (cif) |
164.2
4.1 |
173.6
4.2 |
177.0
4.2 |
177.0
4.2 |
| Exchange
Rate |
Rufiyaa
/ US$ (Period average mid rate)
Rufiyaa / US$ (End of period mid rate) |
12.8000
12.8000 |
12.8000
12.8000 |
12.8000
12.8000 |
12.8000
12.8000 |
1/
GDP figures for 2001 -2003 are revised estimates,
2003 revised on April 2004.
2/ Fish catch excluding EEZ and 2004 figures are estimates.
3/ Excluding live fish.
4/ Figures for 2003 are estimates of 23rd Dec 2003.
5/ Exports have been adjusted to include re-exports
(jet fuel plus other)
6/ Foreign Assets of MMA |
In the final quarter of the year (October-December, 2003)
significant improvements were seen in the key economic
sectors of the country. With the beginning of the peak
season in the tourism industry, the sector performance
improved markedly compared to both the preceding as well
as the corresponding quarter of 2002. The developments
in the fisheries sector were also positive with considerable
support provided by significantly higher growth in fish
export earnings.
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