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Pakistan’s
external sector has remained under pressure for a variety
of reasons during the outgoing fiscal
year 2000-01. Firstly, the unprecedented drought
situation caused serious damage to agriculture and accordingly
reduced the exportable surpluses of major agricultural
commodities. Secondly, the international economic environment
has also remained inhospitable for developing countries
in general and Pakistan
in particular. The global economic growth momentum lost
its steam in 2001, primarily because of greater-than-expected
slowdown in the US economy, stalling recovery in Japan
and not-so-compensating growth in Europe
and other emerging market economies. In an environment
of global slow down the commodity
prices are expected to remain weak. Indeed, Pakistan
has experienced decline in unit values of its major
export items in the range of 4.8 percent to 25.4 percent
during the outgoing fiscal year 2000-01. Thirdly, oil
prices have remained firm during most of the period
of the outgoing fiscal year. Higher oil prices have
adversely affected the trade balance. Indeed, Pakistan’s
oil import bill was, on average, 19 percent of total
import during the last 5 years but it is now increased
to 31 percent. In other words, oil bills account for
almost one-third of the country’s total import
and as such has put tremendous pressure on the balance
of payments during the outgoing fiscal year. The external
sector performance, when viewed in the background of
developments described above, appears to be satisfactory.
Export Trends
The growth pattern of exports in the decade of 1990s
exhibited a fluctuating trend – increasing as
high as 23.8 percent (1990-91) and falling as sharply
as 9.8 percent in 1998-99. The year 1999-2000 ended
with a sound growth of 10.1 percent . The sharp fluctuation
in exports growth is mainly attributed to the concentration
of exports in few items and in few markets. However,
the dismal performance during 1998-99 was observed mainly
on account of impact of economic sanctions,
massive shortfall of raw cotton and depressed commodity
prices in the international market.
Exports
during the current fiscal year (July-April, 2000-01)
amounted to $ 7456.1 million as against $ 6932.5 million
of the comparable period last year, thereby registering
a rise of 7.6 percent. The major increase came from
the exports of primary commodities (10.2%), other manufactures
(17.9%), and ‘others’ exports (23.1%). Export
of textile manufactures registered a modest growth of
3.0 percent. Further detail suggests that among the
primary commodities, the exports of raw cotton,
fish & fish preparation and leather showed a significant
increase, but export of rice depicted a decline of 2.9
percent. In textile manufactures, the major textile
items posted moderate increase with the exception of
synthetic textiles which registered a growth of 21.4
percent. On the other hand, the export of cotton fabrics
declined by 7.8 percent in textile manufactures group.
Further investigation suggests that in quantity terms,
the export of cotton fabrics increased by 9.2 percent
but its unit value suffered a decline of 15.5 percent.
Within the category of other manufactures, exports of
petroleum
products and leather manufactures witnessed a admirable
increase of 92.5 percent and
23.4 percent respectively.
| Years |
Exports |
Imports |
| 1984-1985 |
2491 |
5906 |
| 1985-1986 |
3070 |
5634 |
| 1986-1987 |
3686 |
5380 |
| 1987-1988 |
4455 |
6391 |
| 1988-1989 |
4661 |
7034 |
| 1989-1990 |
4954 |
6935 |
| 1990-1991 |
6131 |
7619 |
| 1991-1992 |
6904 |
9252 |
| 1992-1993 |
6813 |
9941 |
| 1993-1994 |
6803 |
8564 |
| 1994-1995 |
8137 |
10394 |
| 1995-1996 |
8707 |
11805 |
| 1996-1997 |
8320 |
11894 |
| 1997-1998 |
8628 |
10118 |
| 1998-1999 |
7779 |
9432 |
| 1999-2000 |
8569 |
10309 |
| 2000-2001 |
9202 |
10729 |
| 2001-2002 |
9135 |
10340 |
| 2002-2003 |
11160 |
12220 |
| Exports
by Commodity/Groups |
| (Million
Rupees) |
| Year/Month |
Raw
Cotton |
Cotton
Fabrics |
Cotton
Yarn &
Thread |
Knitwear |
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003 Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2004 Jan. |
116.4
3760.8
8072.5
1502.1
2872.6
422.8
386.3
331.9
117.8
97.6
56.6
80.1
76.0
68.8
424.3
453.6
354.6
153.3 |
55980.3
56757.2
60485.6
69296.9
78665.4
6015.7
5144.5
7010.0
6805.5
7966.6
8151.1
6568.0
6851.0
8305.1
7651.8
5803.7
9059.0
8511.6 |
474971.1
55551.4
62954.8
57165.3
54342.0
4398.8
3980.2
4874.5
4714.9
4633.3
4164.4
4043.0
4362.6
4480.7
4698.9
4704.9
7471.7
6886.2 |
37230.1
45913.1
53201.6
52089.6
67033.7
4814.1
4261.0
4998.0
5212.7
7172.4
8126.2
6606.7
7785.4
6759.4
6681.4
5469.9
6929.9
7212.4 |
| Exports
by Commodity/Groups |
| (Million
Rupees) |
| Year/Month |
Bed-wear |
Woolen
Carpets |
Leather |
Rice |
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003 Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2004 Jan. |
30688.1
36757.1
43649.8
56383.6
77633.0
7097.6
4954.4
6221.9
7935.0
8171.4
8890.1
6764.9
7621.0
7753.0
5748.5
3972.6
5837.0
7019.9 |
9940.2
13200.4
16424.7
14976.9
12689.8
1029.0
1189.7
1115.8
662.0
879.0
1776.1
459.4
1035.5
1245.1
1090.4
1400.2
945.0
1049.1 |
8895
9071.1
13722.6
14739.6
13732.9
1040.1
937.1
1200.0
1059.3
1215.8
1454.4
896.2
1187.5
1018.9
1265.8
1129.9
1243.9
1262.3 |
26825
27944.4
30849.3
27509.5
32432.8
3051.2
2779.4
3519.6
3084.6
3006.6
2810.0
2623.1
3120.8
2802.6
3293.1
2677.7
3414.6
2721.1 |
| Exports
by Commodity/Groups |
| (Million
Rupees) |
| Year/Month |
Fish
& Fish
Preparations |
Fruits
&
Vegetables |
Sports
Goods |
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003 Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2004 Jan. |
6174.9
7190.7
7994.5
7745.8
7866.9
549.1
417.1
568.5
755.2
859.5
599.7
554.3
776.3
1222.4
1074.1
760.8
622.8
574.6 |
5407.0
6582.9
6937.2
7124.8
6696.0
743.0
571.2
625.3
467.2
500.1
921.5
513.7
743.2
563.0
479.4
490.5
509.3
646.8 |
12851.4
14457.4
15918.9
18623
19579.0
1779.4
1281.4
1443.6
2113.8
1615.8
2586.1
1105.7
1660.0
1475.4
1489.6
1310.3
1296.6
1517.7 |
| Value
of Foreign Trade |
| (Million
Rupees) |
| Year/Month |
Export |
Re-export |
Import |
Re-Import |
Balance
of Trade |
1998-
99
1999- 00
2000- 01
2001- 02
2002- 03 |
390342.2
443678.3
539370.1
560946.7
652293.8 |
3500.8
3474.0
3711.1
4306.9
2943.5 |
465964.0
533791.5
627000.0
634630.3
714371.9 |
681.2
940.5
745.3
688.5
342.0 |
-72802.2
-87579.7
-84964.1
-70065.2
-59476.6 |
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